Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 20M jobs were shed by their payrolls in April by the US government.

Not only is April’s 20.236M report the worst in ADP report’s history but, it’s also the double of the last record set in February 2009 during the time of great recession. The record was of 834,665.

Some economists believe that this statistic is not surprising. Further, they were expecting a decline of over 22M.

According to Ahu Yildirmaz, Co-head of the ADP research institute “Job losses of this scale were totally unexpected”.

ADP stands for Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Until 2014, ADP was one of the 4 American Company to have   AAA credit rating from both Standard & Poor’s(S&P) and Moody’s.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s said that he could see these numbers change in future. He further added that he is anticipating big and positive numbers soon.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SECTORS:-

It was expected that most job losses were profound in the service sector. The service sector fell by somewhere around 16M. The main reason behind this is that as a result of pandemic restaurants were forced to shut down their dine-in facilities. This includes Bars, Cafeterias, Fast food centers and further more.

Trade & Transportation were also in halt and as a result of it they lost 3.44M, constructional, manufacturing and professional and business services fell short by 2.48M, 1.67M and 1.17M respectively. A little less than a million people were laid-off by healthcare and social assistance.

Although, the service sector suffered the worst but there were areas which somehow managed gains. These included education and management sector which reported gains of 28000 & 8000 respectively.

Goods Sectors also reported a loss of 4.3M.

U.S. services sector, private payrolls growth slow - Reuters

LOOKING AT JOBS BY BUSINESS SIZE:-

Bigger size business which contained an amount of employees more than 500 were hit the hardest. More than 9M people were laid-off.

Smaller size business which contained an amount of employees less than 50 also lost around 5.9M.

Medium size business which contained more than 50 and less than 500 also saw more than 5M layoffs.

VIEWS:-

  • Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizen Bank stated that “several states are relaxing while following their stay-at-home orders and that government and businesses have stepped forward to show their support to workers and companies”.
  • Charlie Ripley, senior market strategist at Allianz Investment said that “Going in we knew that we will be seeing job losses. But the job losses which are being observed now are not permanent job losses, they are temporary. This gives us hope that these job losses could well come back”. He added that “Looking at historic numbers, we still see a U-shaped recovery as of now. But we can’t be quite sure, we’ll have to wait to see how this works out”.
  • According to Quincy Krosby, Chief market strategist at Prudential Financial “Despite the fact that the numbers are lesser than that expected, the numbers are still decisive. These numbers shot-up quickly as a result of government shutdowns and not because of 12 Years of depression”.

OUR ANALYSIS:-

Though the layoffs were less than expecting, it’s still a gigantic number. The unemployment rate which rose from 4.4% to 16% is also pretty alarming.

It’s not much of a surprise because everyone is aware of the situation the world is going through. It’s a shutdown situation therefore, it’s only logical for the businesses to lay-off their employees.

The recovery might take a couple of years, like the great depression which lasted a little more than 3 years.

This has also led Trump pushing for businesses to reopen and has also supported demonstrations in various parts of country against stay-at-home orders. “We may be opening but we’re putting safety above anything else “.

Covid-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency in the United States on 31st Jan by HHS. The United States airlines also suspended all flights between the US and China. As of now, the united states have 1,439,715 coronavirus cases out of which 85,768 have died and 311,708 have recovered. New York is the worst affected having 350,848 cases.

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